Journal of Surgical Research
Volume 163, Issue 1 , Pages 1-6 , September 2010

Aortic Valve Replacement: Mortality Predictions of Surgeons Versus Risk Model1

  • Faisal G. Bakaeen, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • The Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
    • The Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas
    • Corresponding Author InformationTo whom correspondence and reprint requests should be addressed at Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey VAMC, OCL 112, 2002 Holcombe Blvd., Houston, TX 77030.
    • ,
  • Danny Chu, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • The Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
    • The Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Kim I. de la Cruz, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Raja R. Gopaldas, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Shubhada Sansgiry, Ph.D.

      Affiliations

    • The Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Joseph Huh, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • The Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Scott A. LeMaire, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • The Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • David H. Berger, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • The Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
    • ,
  • Joseph S. Coselli, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
    • The Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas

Received 7 January 2010

References 

  1. Daley J. Criteria by which to evaluate risk-adjusted outcomes programs in cardiac surgery. Ann Thorac Surg. 1994;58:1827
  2. Iezzoni LI. The risks of risk adjustment. JAMA. 1997;278:1600
  3. Tu JV, Sykora K, Naylor CD. Assessing the outcomes of coronary artery bypass graft surgery: How many risk factors are enough? Steering Committee of the Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1997;30:1317
  4. Shahian DM, Blackstone EH, Edwards FH, et al. Cardiac surgery risk models: A position article. Ann Thorac Surg. 2004;78:1868
  5. Fink AS. Adjusted or unadjusted outcomes. Am J Surg. 2009;198:S28
  6. Kozower BD, Ailawadi G, Jones DR, et al. Predicted risk of mortality models: Surgeons need to understand limitations of the University HealthSystem Consortium models. J Am Coll Surg. 2009;209:551
  7. O'Brien SM, Shahian DM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: Part 2—isolated valve surgery. Ann Thorac Surg. 2009;88:S23
  8. Granton J, Cheng D. Risk stratification models for cardiac surgery. Semin Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. 2008;12:167
  9. Rankin JS, Hammill BG, Ferguson TB, et al. Determinants of operative mortality in valvular heart surgery. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2006;131:547
  10. Edwards FH, Peterson ED, Coombs LP, et al. Prediction of operative mortality after valve replacement surgery. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2001;37:885
  11. Grover FL, Hammermeister KE, Burchfiel C. Initial report of the Veterans Administration Preoperative Risk Assessment Study for Cardiac Surgery. Ann Thorac Surg. 1990;50:12
  12. Grover FL, Johnson RR, Shroyer AL, et al. The Veterans Affairs Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Study. Ann Thorac Surg. 1994;58:1845
  13. Grover FL, Shroyer AL, Hammermeister KE. Calculating risk and outcome: The Veterans Affairs database. Ann Thorac Surg. 1996;62:S6
  14. Grover FL, Shroyer AL, Hammermeister K, et al. A decade's experience with quality improvement in cardiac surgery using the Veterans Affairs and Society of Thoracic Surgeons national databases. Ann Surg. 2001;234:464
  15. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982;143:29

PII: S0022-4804(10)00178-2

doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2010.03.015

Journal of Surgical Research
Volume 163, Issue 1 , Pages 1-6 , September 2010

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