Abstract
Introduction
The effects of firearm sales and legislation on crime and violence are intensely debated,
with multiple studies yielding differing results. We hypothesized that increased lawful
firearm sales would not be associated with the rates of crime and homicide when studied
using a robust statistical method.
Methods
National and state rates of crime and homicide during 1999-2015 were obtained from
the United States Department of Justice and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks were used as a
surrogate for lawful firearm sales. A general multiple linear regression model using
log event rates was used to assess the effect of firearm sales on crime and homicide
rates. Additional modeling was then performed on a state basis using an autoregressive
correlation structure with generalized estimating equation estimates for standard
errors to adjust for the interdependence of variables year to year within a particular
state.
Results
Nationally, all crime rates except the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–designated
firearm homicides decreased as firearm sales increased over the study period. Using
a naive national model, increases in firearm sales were associated with significant
decreases in multiple crime categories. However, a more robust analysis using generalized
estimating equation estimates on state-level data demonstrated increases in firearms
sales were not associated with changes in any crime variables examined.
Conclusions
Robust analysis does not identify an association between increased lawful firearm
sales and rates of crime or homicide. Based on this, it is unclear if efforts to limit
lawful firearm sales would have any effect on rates of crime, homicide, or injuries
from violence committed with firearms.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: September 22, 2022
Accepted:
August 15,
2022
Received in revised form:
June 23,
2022
Received:
January 19,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
